UFC 224 is right around the corner and we can feel the excitement in the air. Amanda Nunes is set to defend her Bantamweight Championship against underdog Raquel Pennington, and in the Co-Main event Ronaldo Souza is set to square off against Kelvin Gastelum. Here in the UFC 224 predictions we will breakdown the Vegas betting odds and predict who we think will walk out of Brazil with a win.
No. 5. Vitor Belfort vs. Lyoto Machida
Vitor Belfort vs. Lyoto Machida is a fight roughly 5 years in the making. Back during the height of the Weidman Era in the Middleweight division there were discussions that both fighters would meet in the octagon. Jump to UFC 224 and the 2 men are finally set to square off in the octagon in what promises to be an exciting bout.
During the time of this writing, Lyoto Machida is the fighter with the edge to win a decision victory. Machida employs one of the hardest stances for many fighters to adjust to in the octagon, and his pin-point striking can lead him straight to a knockout win if his opponent isn’t careful. Lyoto, like Vitor, is an aging fighter now, and recently has found himself victim of some devastating knock out losses. While Machida is the Vegas odds bet to win, we are going to go with Vitor winning the fight via tko/ko. Vitor still processes knockout power and is one of the more accomplished strikers the sport has seen.
Prediction: Vitor Belfort by TKO/KO
No. 4. Brian Kelleher vs. John Lineker
Despite coming up short against Marlon Vera, Brain Kelleher looks to add another impressive win to his record in his road to the Bantamweight Championship. Standing in Kelleher’s way is John Lineker, who is a tough outing for about any fighter in the division. Vegas has Lineker the early favorite to win by decision, and unless Kelleher can implement the same footwork and striking T.J. Dillashaw used in his win over Lineker, it might be a long night for Kelleher.
However, Brian’s recent win over Renan Barao might suggest that Kelleher is more than up to the challenge of John Lineker. With both men weighed in and ready to fight, we are going to go with Brian getting a decision win over Lineker and continuing his way up the Bantamweight rankings.
Prediction: Brian Kelleher by decision.
No. 3. Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Cooper
On paper, Mackenzie Dern taking on Amanda Cooper looks to be one of the bigger mismatches in recent memory. Dern, a decorated BJJ black belt who has competed all over the world, takes on a challenger that doesn’t quite seem up to the task of defending submissions.
Even though Dern is heading into the fight after an unsuccessful weight cut, she doesn’t seem to be let down by it, as her road to victory against Cooper seems as easy as just getting Cooper to the ground. Amanda’s key to victory would be preventing take down attempts and capitalizing on the success of her striking like she did against Angela Magana. It’ll be a tough outing for Cooper, that’s why we are taking Mackenzie Dern to win this one, as her skills on the ground seem like a daunting task for Amanda to overcome.
Prediction: Mackenzie Dern via Submission
No. 2. Ronaldo Souza vs. Kelvin Gastelum
In our Co-Main event we head back to the Middleweight Division where Vegas favorite Ronaldo Souza takes on Kelvin Gastelum in fight that could determine the next in line to challenge for the Middleweight Championship.
It’s not a secret that most are going with Souza to pick up the win over Kelvin by submission, and if he puts on a performance like Weidman did against Gastelum, Souza will be one step closer to a championship opportunity. While Souza is an accomplished striker as well, he will need to be cautious of Kelvin’s knockout power, as Kelvin has managed to finish some of the sport’s elite. It’ll be Souza’s job to take down the accomplished wrestler and wear him down during the fight, and endurance might be Souza’s downfall.
Gastelum, the younger of the 2 by over 10 years, will have youth on his side, and as we know the sport isn’t usually favorable to the older fighter. It’ll be interesting to see if Souza can pull off a submission against Kelvin, but the fight might not make it to the ground where Souza can find success.
Prediction: Kelvin by KO/TKO
No. 1. Amanda Nunes vs. Raquel Pennington
We now go to our main event where UFC Bantamweight Champion Amanda Nunes takes on Raquel Pennington, who is the largest underdog on the card by Vegas odds. Raquel is the “easy bet” if you like to root for underdogs, and betting 20 dollars on her could net you over 100 dollars if she wins in certain markets. This is a fight that is being overlooked by the betting odds though, the actual odds are much closer than what is shown. Many betting odds are favoring Nunes to win due to her tremendous knockout potential that she has shown throughout her career.
However, Pennington has a chance to drag this fight out into later rounds and take away some of the knockout power that Nunes has. If Pennington implements an early strategy of clinching Nunes against the cage, making Nunes carry her weight, Nunes best weapon might be neutralized, giving Pennington the edge. The main thing Pennington has going against her is a year long lay off from the sport. Typically, that long of a lay off isn’t the best scenario a fighter would hope for, but Pennington could channel her inner GSP and shock the world Saturday night. In the end, Nunes’ experience in championship fights might prove to be the deciding factor against Pennington.
Prediction: Nunes by Decision